TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) projected global economic growth to reach 2.9 percent in 2026 and 3.0 percent in 2027. The projection was released in the Economic Outlook Interim Report.
According to the report, citing ANTARA, growth in G20 advanced and emerging market economies is expected to remain stable. The report also projected G20 headline inflation to rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 4.1 percent in 2026, before easing to 3.6 percent in 2027.
Headline inflation in advanced G20 economies is projected to rise from 2.5 percent in 2025 to 3.2 percent in 2026, before falling to 2.6 percent in 2027. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to increase from 4.1 percent to 4.8 percent, before easing to 4.3 percent in emerging market G20 economies.
The OECD stated that the projection is based on the technical assumption that Brent crude oil and TTF gas prices will peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 and then gradually decline through the end of 2027.
The Brent crude oil price projection generally aligns with the “short disruption” scenario outlined in the June 2026 edition of the OECD Economic Outlook. However, the gas price projection is approximately 60 percent higher.
The OECD has warned that persistent uncertainty regarding the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East remains a key risk to the baseline projection. They added that export restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, further disruptions to alternative export routes such as the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, or significant additional damage to energy production facilities in the region could trigger sustained energy price increases and potentially lead to shortages of key commodities, particularly in net-importing countries.
“Further monetary policy rate adjustments may be needed,” the OECD said, noting that faced with renewed energy price shocks, stronger-than-expected demand, and above-target inflation in many economies, central banks must ensure underlying inflationary pressures remain under control.
The risk of supply disruptions could be exacerbated by low gas reserves in Europe and uncertainty regarding potential further reductions in oil supplies in several countries.
The OECD also calls for further structural policy reforms to help the economy withstand future supply shocks, including diversifying energy supplies, improving energy efficiency, enhancing product and labor market flexibility, and ensuring workers possess adaptable skills.
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