Any solid financial advisor is apt to give you the same advice regarding the perfect time to start investing in the market: There isn’t one. With markets on the move and rates perpetually shifting, not to mention plenty of curveballs popping up regularly, it’s far more advantageous to treat the market as something you move with rather than wait out. The only surefire way to miss out is to never get started. And for first-time buyers looking to build a real estate portfolio, the same holds true — waiting for the “right” time to buy can make it harder to take that first step.
Just like the stock market, or that backpacking trip you’ve been putting off since college, the housing market might not always feel perfect — it’s too expensive; rates are too high, too uncertain — but that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong time. Decoding what any of it actually means may feel like a learning curve for any first-time buyer. But when you look at the numbers, there’s a more optimistic story hiding in plain sight — and a market that can work in your favor in many ways.
What the market really looks like right now
The frenzy years, with 2021-2022 at the peak, had many buyers waiving inspections, going tens of thousands over asking, and losing anyway. It was a period that, in many markets, looks a bit different from today. According to Zillow Research, the majority of the nation’s largest housing markets now offer buyers more leverage. In some areas, inventory is up, houses are staying on the market longer, and buyers have less competition and more negotiating room than at any point in recent years.
What that means in practice is that seller concessions (i.e. contributions toward closing costs, mortgage rate buydowns, or repair credits) are on the table in a very real way. Nearly 44 percent of U.S. home-sale transactions included seller concessions in early 2025, up from 39 percent the year before. For a first-time buyer managing both a down payment and closing costs simultaneously, a negotiated concession can make a genuine dent in what it actually costs to close.
What that also means is buyers have access to one of the more invisible luxuries of a slower market: time. During the frenzy years, it was a bit of a due diligence nightmare. Buyers were faced with 48-hour decision windows, waived contingencies and/or inspections, and even offers written in parking lots, if social media anecdotes are to be believed. The pace of today’s market gives space for buyers to think clearly and ask questions while making one of the largest financial decisions of their life without exterior timelines dictating their pace.
What looks like a disadvantage may not be one
Higher rates can feel like the most obvious headwind for a first-time buyer right now. But if you look at it from a different angle, what may feel intimidating for a lot of buyers can also be an advantage for you. When rates are elevated, fewer buyers feel confident enough to enter the market at all, which can mean less competition, more negotiating room, and sellers willing to make deals they wouldn’t have even fathomed two years ago. A visible “disadvantage,” such as a higher rate, can actually position you far better when it comes to getting into the right home at the right price.
And don’t forget that the rate you start with isn’t the rate you’re stuck with. If rates drop, you can explore refinancing into a better one. An added bonus is that the influx of buyers that typically follows a rate decrease usually tends to push home values up. Meaning the home you bought before the crowd came back is now worth more — but you still have the option to lower your rate. Buying thoughtfully now and knowing you can refinance later should rates drop (at least enough to cover any associated refinance closing costs) can be a lower-risk strategy to consider compared to waiting for a moment that may never feel perfect.
Think like a strategist about location
If you’ve tuned into at least one or two real estate or home renovation shows, there’s a high chance you’ve heard the old adage about buying the worst house in the best neighborhood. But data from a study published in the International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis suggests that a better opportunity is often the neighborhood just outside the one everyone already wants.
Up-and-coming neighborhoods in 2026 show clear signs: home price growth outpacing the city average, an influx of new businesses and amenities, public and private investment, and demographic shifts toward younger residents and families. These are the neighborhoods where appreciation likely hasn’t happened yet, but a buyer with seven to 10 years of foresight can grow into the value of what they bought, rather than paying a premium for appreciation previous owners had already captured.
The question worth asking your agent isn’t just “what can I afford in this neighborhood?” but “what’s happening in the neighborhoods adjacent to where I want to be?” Are there new transit lines or rezoning activity? Or perhaps a cluster of new restaurants on one block? How does the school system compare with neighboring towns? All these questions are especially important when considering the amount of time you want to spend invested in the area. These might be the signs of an opportunity most buyers will likely miss.
How to be the buyer sellers want to say yes to
Here’s something worth considering: Many homeowners who locked in low rates during the pandemic still have a strong incentive to hold onto their homes. That means sellers who are listing despite that are largely doing so because they have to, often due to life changes that can’t wait for better conditions. Sellers who need to move, whether for a job, a life change, or a family situation, quite often will prioritize a smooth, reliable sale over the highest offer. For a pre-approved buyer who’s done their homework, that alignment creates leverage that has nothing to do with the price.
Getting pre-approved before shopping is foundational — it’s what turns a potential buyer into a credible one, and it’s what lets you move quickly and with confidence when the right property comes along, rather than scrambling to catch up. From there, going beyond your approval number and knowing your real budget, namely the monthly payment that will fit your actual life, helps keep you grounded when emotions are running high.
And if it still feels like you don’t know enough to take the first step? You’re not alone. Most first-time buyers don’t start with all the answers — but with the right support and guidance along the way, the process becomes clearer. After all, the goal isn’t to know everything before you start, but simply to start.
Leveraging funding assistance
One of the most underutilized strategies in today’s market is knowing what resources are available to you before you start. Many first-time buyers assume the path to homeownership runs entirely through their own savings and never realize that assistance programs exist that can open up possibilities.
Progressive’s Open the House initiative offers educational resources designed to help first-time buyers build knowledge and confidence at every stage of the process. As part of this initiative, Progressive is helping support first-time buyers through its UpPayment® program, which provides down payment assistance of up to $13,500 to at least 200 eligible buyers,* helping make homeownership feel more within reach.
The market has never been something you could time perfectly. But understanding the nuance of any given market can offer first-time buyers more of an advantage than holding out for a perfect scenario.
Learn More about Progressive’s UpPayment program and see if you’re eligible at progressive.com/openthehouse.
*Limited availability. Open 50 US/DC, 18+ only. Eligibility requirements apply. Visit Pgrs.in/UpPayment for terms and conditions.
This material is offered for informational purposes only. It is not legal, financial, or tax advice. You should consider consulting with qualified professionals before making home-buying decisions. Progressive is not responsible for the content, function, or privacy policies of any third-party sites linked from this page.
