Economic Cycle
Expectations for economic growth in Switzerland this year have improved significantly. This is now also reflected in the latest survey of Swiss economists conducted by the KOF Institute. (File photo)
Keystone
Expectations for economic growth in Switzerland this year have improved significantly. This is now also reflected in the latest survey of Swiss economists conducted by the KOF Institute.
25.09.2026, 09:46In the September survey conducted as part of the KOF Consensus Forecast, the experts now expect real gross domestic product (GDP, seasonally adjusted) to grow by 1.7 percent in 2026. In the last survey in June, the average growth forecast was still +0.9 percent, as the KOF announced on Friday.
Respondents have also revised their growth expectations for the coming year upward. The KOF Consensus figure for adjusted GDP growth in 2027 now stands at +1.7 percent, up from a June forecast of +1.5 percent.
Significant Investments
This growth is driven in no small part by investment activity: Experts expect real fixed investment to increase by 1.5 percent in 2026 (June: +0.9 percent) and by 2.2 percent in 2027 (June: +1.8 percent).
Construction investment is expected to increase by 2.4 percent in 2026 (June: +1.2 percent) and by 1.9 percent in 2027 (June: +1.6 percent). Forecasts for foreign trade have also been revised upward.
Seventeen economists participated in the survey. The survey was conducted from September 3 to September 23, 2026.
Inflation Lower
Experts, however, now expect inflation to be slightly lower than previously anticipated. They are now forecasting a 0.6 percent increase in the consumer price index for the current year (June: +0.7 percent) and a 0.8 percent increase for next year (June: +0.9 percent).
By contrast, the outlook for the Swiss labor market remains unchanged. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.1 percent for the current year and to drop to 3.0 percent in 2027.
Exchange rate remains largely unchanged
Respondents do not expect any major changes in the franc’s external value. The Swiss franc’s exchange rate against the euro is expected to remain at approximately 0.93 CHF/EUR in three months, and at 0.92 in twelve months. Against the U.S. dollar, a slight decline to 0.81 CHF/USD is expected, and 0.80 CHF/USD in twelve months.
