The economy is under pressure from Russian shelling and export blockades
The Ministry of Economy is considering a scenario in which Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for this year is revised downwards to 0.5%. This was announced by the Minister of Economy and Environment, Oleksandr Kravchenko, at the Forbes Ukraine Economic Resilience Forum, according to ‘Interfax Ukraine’.
He noted that the country’s real economic growth this year will be lower than the current forecast of 1.6% due to intensified Russian shelling.
The Minister pointed out that in the first quarter of 2026, GDP contracted for the first time since 2023 — by 0.6% year-on-year. Despite some cautious optimism regarding the second half of the year, the economy is under pressure from export blockades and the disruption of logistics caused by Russian shelling. According to Kravchenko’s forecasts, this pressure will intensify. Whilst GDP growth stood at 4% year-on-year in July, the Ministry of Economy expects the figure to be around 0% as early as August.
It should be noted that, according to the National Bank’s July estimates, Ukraine may lose out on export revenues amounting to around $2.5 billion in the second half of 2026 due to Russian shelling of ports and the blockading of maritime infrastructure.
As reported by GMK Center, the performance of the Ukrainian economy has deteriorated significantly. Although Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 0.6% year-on-year in the second quarter, the economy contracted by 0.6% year-on-year in the first quarter against the backdrop of winter power cuts.
In 2025, Ukraine’s real GDP grew by 1.8%, compared with 3.2% in 2024.
